Last Author: Norbert Schrepf
GFM Paul von Hindenburg, condition I+
In this article I will show a methodology that allows to systematically determine the value of a figure from observed sales prices. This methodology is also used to calculate the market values in the catalogue of the Toy Soldier Gallery.
Selling PricesSelling prices depend on many different factors. In order to be able to compare them and calculate a market value from them, they must first be adjusted to each other in order to correlate them meaningfully.
Condition and OriginalityThe value of a figure depends on some objective criteria. These are in particular the condition of the figure and its originality. Without any doubt, an unplayed original figure is worth much more than a figure that has clearly suffered in several "battles" and thus suffered losses in mass and color.
Description of state
Marching figure, condition III-IV
Paul von Hindenburg, condition II-
To describe the state of figures, the following are divided into categories.
|I-II||small paint damage or stress cracks|
|II+||minor paint damage and stress cracks|
|II||paint damage and stress cracks|
|II-||paint damage and chipping|
|II-III||paint damage and fractures|
|III+||paint damage and small missing parts|
|III||clear paint damage and small missing parts|
|III-||large-area paint damage and missing parts|
|IV+||still worth collecting.|
|IV||spare part dispenser|
Status factor for value determination
In order to be able to compare two sales prices with each other, a factor must be found with whose help these can be set in relation. This means that each selling price must be converted to condition I (original figure without defects).
The following table describes the conversion factor in relation to the sales price of a figure. The values for the conversion factor were determined empirically on the basis of observations of current sales prices (e.g. on the Figures Journal, http://www.figuren-journal.de).
This results in a hypothetical selling price in condition I of 125 Euro (= 100 Euro / 80%) for a figure in condition II+ with a selling price of 100 Euro.
Restorations and New Productions
Restored / repainted figure
The selling prices for new productions are completely unsuitable for determining the market value, as they do not reflect the availability and value of the original on the market in any way.
Factor for Historical Sales PricesLike all collectible objects, figures are also subject to a certain value development. This means that the selling price that was achieved for a figure 10 years ago cannot necessarily be constantly achieved today. In order to take this circumstance into account, the registered selling prices are weighted by age when averaging. The table shows the weighting in relation of the sales year to the current year. This means that a sales price per age is less and less included in the calculation of the market value.
This means that only 50% of the sales price achieved 4 years ago is now included in the value calculation.
Data CollectionSince the figures are not offered nowadays for the most part as mass-produced goods and are therefore not available everywhere and at any time, the selling prices fluctuate considerably, especially for rare figures. A figurine always achieves only the selling price that a collector is willing to pay for it. This can be observed especially at auctions. If there are several prospective buyers for a figure, the knock-down will surely take place at a higher price than if there is only one prospective buyer. This also explains why price differences of more than 50% are sometimes achieved for the same figures. In order to obtain a realistic market value of a figure, an average value must be formed over several sales prices. Here, the more sales data is available for a figure, the more accurately its market value can be determined.
Market Value CalculationThe calculation of the market value is shown in the table below. First, all sales prices are recorded with the year of sale. In the 5th column, the conversion takes place at the hypothetical sales price in condition I. Columns 6 and 7 indicate the percentage weighting of the sales price for averaging. Percentages and sales prices are totaled and then the sum of the sales prices is divided by the sum of the weightings (percentages).
|year||selling price||condition||factor condition||price in condition I||factor time||weighted price||market value|
|2018||120,00 Euro||II||70%||171,43 Euro||85%||145,71 Euro|
|2017||160,00 Euro||II-||65%||246,15 Euro||70%||172,31 Euro|
|2017||140,00 Euro||I-II||80%||175,00 Euro||70%||122,50 Euro|
|2016||165,00 Euro||I||100%||165,00 Euro||60%||99,00 Euro|
|2015||190,00 Euro||I||100%||190,00 Euro||50%||95,00 Euro|
|2011||80,00 Euro||III||50%||160,00 Euro||20%||32,00 Euro|
|2010||249,00 Euro||I||100%||249,00 Euro||15%||37,35 Euro|
|2008||269,00 Euro||I-II||80%||336,25 Euro||5%||16,81 Euro|
|2008||199,00 Euro||II+||75%||265,33 Euro||5%||13,27 Euro|
|2003||320,00 Euro||II||70%||457,14 Euro||5%||22,86 Euro|
|Summe||385%||756,81 Euro||196,57 Euro|
This results in a calculated market value of 196.57 euros for 2019. Since this is only an approximate value, it is rounded to 5 euros and given as 195.00 euros.
The value for the individual conditions can then be calculated from this market value.
|value||195,00 Euro||136,50 Euro||78,00 Euro||44,85 Euro|
13.09.2019, 21:18 - Member
Das ist eine sehr hilfreiche Methode zur Wertermittlung. Tolle Idee. Wie ich sehe ist damit automatisch auch der Wert einer online hinterlegten Sammlung ermittelt. (Für die bisher mit einem Wert hinterlegten Artikel)
13.09.2019, 21:22 - Member
Ich überlege gerade wie man mit Hilfe einer App und einem Objekt Scan evtl. eine automatische Zustandseinordung bekommen kann. Die über eine AI hinterlegte Funktion könnte mit jeder neuen gescannten Figur selbst lernen... Ist eine kleine Studie aus meinem Berufsalltag